Baby, even the losers
Get lucky sometimes
Even the losers
Keep a little bit of pride
They get lucky sometimes
Tom Petty, 1979.

You, dear reader, have the advantage of me, since, at the time of writing – certainly in the run-up to delivering this article – I made the classic mistake of thinking that politicians could keep their collective promise on the one thing they were all elected to deliver (if you don’t believe me, go back and read both parties’ manifestos) following the calamitous UK general election in 2017. But here we are, none the wiser and with a 12 April extension for Theresa May to somehow win over all those MPs she so recently roundly berated for failing to vote for her (dismal) deal. You may also have the advantage over me as I believed (at least hoped) that we had reached peak Brexit in terms of dominating column inches. Sadly not, and it looks like there is no escape from Brexit dominating our news flow for weeks, months (years?) to come – I promise to try and move on!

Brexit is often compared to a divorce, taking much longer and costing a lot more than anyone expected – all true so far! It can also, as historian, author and broadcaster Niall Ferguson has pointed out, result in the realisation that “not all the problems were really the fault of their ex-wife”.

Be that is as it may, whether your outlook is remain or exit, UK politics has hit a low. William Hague said recently this has been the worst failure of government and parliament in two or three hundred years. While he may well be right, it is both sad and extraordinary that such comparisons are being made. After all, it’s not as if both of the major political parties went into the process on opposite sides of the argument – following the Brexit referendum result, both were clear that they accepted the result. What the process has exposed, however, is the gulf between voters and their elected representatives. Far from the usual vote-seeking platitudes about being elected to serve, it has become apparent that the majority of MPs think their constituents are not only wrong on the merits of the argument, but, despite the aforesaid manifestos, in need of having their minds changed through that classic EU manoeuvre, the re-vote.

It is quite amusing to see British politicians adopting one of the tactics that most infuriates voters of all European complexions (ask the Irish, the French, the Dutch, the Danes and the Greeks – all of whom have been made to vote again following a “wrong” answer) about the institution in the first place. But no matter, it is clear that the Establishment is appalled by the population’s failure to understand its duty and is thus deploying any and all means necessary to correct it.

It will be interesting to see whether this last-minute fiasco will finally have the economic effect that so many have forecast since the vote on 23 June 2016. As you know, we at Ravenscroft place very little store by forecasting or politics, preferring to invest in sound businesses that know their market and continue to manage their resources to exploit competitive advantage. What is certainly true is that doom-mongering has been the order of the day since the vote was cast. Yet, as often happens in these cases, the fundamentals have been ignored in favour of the narrative. Recent employment figures continue to defy the economic Cassandras and the UK persists in outperforming its EU rivals “despite Brexit”. None of this is to say that the situation won’t change, if, for example, the UK eventually leaves without a deal. But businesses took the pessimistic route a long time ago (oddly enough, businesses did not trust politicians to negotiate properly) with the vast majority, 80 per cent according to recent reports, having prepared for the worst case.

It is this foresight and careful management that we vote to invest in and that gives us our cause for optimism – deal or no deal!