Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don’t stand in the doorway
Don’t block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
There’s a battle outside and it is ragin’
It’ll soon shake your windows and rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin’
Bob Dylan (1963)

You might be wise to ignore the pearl-clutching and crocodile tears signaling the sudden awakening of one political side to the idea of the unacceptability of political violence. They weren’t worried when Portland was on fire for four months last summer or while the police station in Minneapolis’ 3rd Precinct was torched on 28 May. And National Guardsmen apparently weren’t required by Washington DC’s mayor in May and June of 2020 after the George Floyd riots because “people have grievances that must be heard.” She certainly didn’t think the same on 6 January 2021. Perhaps it depends upon which people and whose grievances.

Do not interpret the above as endorsement of any one political party or, worse, the idea that incitement to mob rule is a legitimate response to electoral defeat.

The point here, is that cynical manipulation for political advantage is alive and well in US politics and ‘twas ever thus. American politics have frequently been brutal and violent: for example, only one sitting UK Prime Minister has been assassinated in office (in 1812) while three US Presidents have been killed since Lincoln, in 1865, alongside the unsuccessful attempt on a fifth, Reagan, in 1981. When you consider the relative length of the two countries’ histories that is significant.

Bottom line: if you think a bloke in a Viking helmet and make-up represents a coup, then you need to read-up about some proper jobs…try Greece, Turkey, Portugal, Spain, all of South America, Africa, Russia, among others.

With President Biden inbound, it is more instructive to look at what his administration represents and how he might choose to use his newly minted power, given the Georgia Senate wins on 6 January. Immediately following the election, it was assumed that he would face a Republican Senate along with the gridlock that implied. Now, with Vice President Harris’s casting vote, he has a relatively free hand. No, he hasn’t quite the unfettered legislative power that either Obama or Trump had upon entering office, but he very definitely does have – unlike Trump – the power of government in his camp. There’ll be no institutional (or tech or media) “resistance” on his watch.

Why does all this matter? Because history indicates that the 2022 mid-terms will be an almost-immediate referendum (I know, the electoral cycle here is depressing) on Biden’s progress. And, if that history is any indication of what might happen, the likelihood is that his very tight majority in the House will be overturned. Just because. So he needs to get his first moves right.

Thus far, the indications are that Biden is trying to turn the clock back to Obama’s inauguration in 2009, as if wishing away the last four years fairy-godmother style. All sorts of former Obama acolytes are re-appearing in the new administration. But can you turn the clock back, politically? It might have a cosy “West Wing-like” nostalgia feel to it, but the world has moved on. Can Biden really take away the Trump tax cuts (especially when he is apparently about to launch a $2 Trillion stimulus package – including child-care tax-credit refunds for “tax” not owed!)? Can he simply re-engage with an increasingly authoritarian China as if nothing has happened? How does he reset with Russia after four years of paranoia about “election interference”?

I don’t think life – or politics – works that way and it will be interesting to see whether Biden can pull it off. Events always seem to find a way of interfering. Nevertheless, if he can avoid using all his political capital in one misguided move (see Obamacare) then Biden has a chance to pull off the real (soft) political coup of strengthening his majority in 2022’s Congress and creating the conditions for a smooth transition to Harris 2024, thereby potentially locking-out the Republicans for a generation.

However, and as von Clausewitz (Prussian, author of very long book “On War”) warned, the problem is that “the enemy gets a vote.” In this case, about 74 million of them at last count. Regardless of Biden’s record (81 million) popular vote victory, Trump’s is the second largest-ever figure. And all seven million of the winning margin can be accounted for in California and New York – a potential problem for federal idealists. This will have to be carefully reconciled if America is to return to anything like the imagined glory days of Biden's 47-year political career.