In his fifth article covering the run up to the US Presidential election, David Chan provides his viewpoint on the current US political environment. David is a former colleague at Ravenscroft and an old friend of the business. He now lives in Texas with his wife.

We're leaving together,
But still it's farewell
And maybe we'll come back
To earth, who can tell?
I guess there is no one to blame
We're leaving ground (leaving ground)
Will things ever be the same again?
The Final Countdown, Europe, 1986

I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised, but it’s still depressing. My first in-country experience of the US election cycle was 30 years ago when Bill “it’s the economy stupid” Clinton was (ultimately successfully) challenging George “watch my lips, no new taxes” Bush, the Elder, just after the latter’s hugely successful leadership of the 1991 Gulf War. Of course, Bush eventually managed to lose from a position where he had an unheard-of 91 per cent approval rating! The thing that shocked me most at the time was the length of the election campaign, if one could call it that. Coming from the UK where we are used to six-week flash-to-bangs, it was a bit of a shock to suffer through the never-ending campaign that is Congress and the US presidency.

Mind you, in this cycle we haven’t really had a campaign because the losing side essentially refused to accept the 2016 result. As a consequence, the “resistance” simply went on extended manoeuvres involving, among others, alleged Russian, Chinese and Ukrainian scandals and culminating in impeachment hearings that, predictably, got nowhere. Who would have guessed that the secret to beating Trump – if, indeed, that is what transpires – would be a dry cough and a loss of the sense of taste (the gustatory sort)?

As previous readers will be aware, Trump was a lock-in for re-election at the start of this year. The economy was flying and people were feeling it. Now the ‘Rona hasn’t completely shut down the US economy in the way that it would appear that it has in the UK (what IS going on in Wales, by the way?), but it has had a chilling effect on people’s sense of wellbeing; at least sufficiently so to give Joe “Basement” Biden what is forecast to be a very good chance of winning on Tuesday 3 November.

Harold Macmillan may or may not have uttered the oft-quoted aphorism about what blows governments off course (“events, dear boy, events”) but it can surely never have been truer than of this election cycle. Because it is not simply Covid-19’s impact on the economy, but its previously unimaginable associated seven month lockdown, which have combined to give Biden the perfect excuse to avoid both the public and his opponent during what would normally be a diary-packed criss-crossing of the country in the run-up to voting day. And when you do see Biden in action on the campaign trail, you can see precisely why it has been such a boon for him. I mean, how do you forget your opponent’s name? Or which office you’re running for? The truth is that Biden has been gifted a strategy that will in all likelihood never be repeatable in a future presidential election.

Meanwhile, Orange Man Bad has been doing his usual. It is easy to forget that people voted for him last time precisely because he was not a politician. He still isn’t. He might be better at it than people give him credit for, but he is still the same thin-skinned showman with little ability to self-censor. This serves to obscure some very notable political successes.

If his term is judged by Supreme Court nominations, lack of wars, economic progress and tax cuts (all Republican priorities) then one could argue it’s been a pretty successful four years. Will it matter? Certainly not to his political opponents and the majority of the media and prominent technology industries who simply hate him and will do anything to ensure his messaging is turned off.

It might, however, be just enough to get his base and the odd waverer (along with those presumed-Democrat non-voters, especially Black and Hispanic, who are unenthused by Biden/Harris) to get him over the line. The polls have been tightening recently and there are definitely plenty of Trump voters out there who will not declare their allegiance to pollsters (or their friends and neighbours). If he wins – and it’s looking like a longshot from here – it will almost certainly be a repeat of last time: Biden wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college. If that happens again, it will lead to even louder calls for the end of the electoral college. Maybe, but that would only lead ultimately to arguments about the dissolution of the United States – why would small states agree effectively to have their votes ignored in favour of the big ones? A very slippery slope…

In common with the team at Ravenscroft, I do not make predictions, especially where they concern the future. The polls (albeit many now tightening into margin-of-error territory) all indicate Biden, but they did for Hillary Clinton, too. Circumstances, such as the much-increased proportion of early voters due to Covid-19, might well have already had a bigger impact for Biden, but who knows? You’ll just have wait and see!