Weekly update - A Rising Star

METEORIC, the only way to describe Rishi Sunak’s political career, laying siege to the highest echelons of the Tory Party. Parachuted into the Richmond (Yorkshire) constituency, former stronghold of William Hague in 2015 the man is nothing short of impressive.

He boasts a 1st from oxford in Politics, Philosphy & Ethics, the Fulbirght scholarship to Stanford where he completed an MBA, a CV dripping in financial powerhouses such as Goldman Sachs and the son-in-law of India’s third richest man. You’d be forgiven for thinking this was another moneyed, landed conservative but rather the hardworking son of a couple who emigrated from India to the UK.

In a shock which some are calling ‘the morning of the long knives’, Mr Sunak ascended to take the position of Chancellor of the Exchequer treading over Sajid Javid, whom many thought as a tempered hand to a brash Boris. The change came as we are weeks away from the release of the budget, an important milestone in Boris’s young and ambitious campaign.

Starting on the front foot it looks like the new incumbent means business, calling an end to Osbourne’s ill-conceived stamp duty surcharge and announcing a generous car scrappage scheme. The surcharge which penalised those buying a home but already in possession of at least one; a remnant of a Conservative/Lib-Dem coalition. As Savvas Savouri notes, the labour opposition have once again flown the kite of a Mansion tax, without true thought that this would mainly hurt the red wall of supporters in London.

 

‘London is where the vast majority of properties which would fall within a Mansion tax are located. Reflect too that many of these homes are part of the brickwork of what is in effect the Labour Party’s last remaining Red Wall. So NOT ONLY dismiss any idea of a Mansion Tax, BUT smile at how its mere suggestion has turned London’s reds very pale indeed.’

 

Saavas Savouri, Toscafund.

There is no doubt that Mr Sunak’s future is now intertwined with the current administration, but some forecasters are touting him as a ten-year Chancellor and a future PM. To caution this, the so called ‘experts’ have been proven wrong more times than not in recent years. However, what you can certainly say for sure is that the future is bright, as ascension through the ranks and an upward trajectory seem assured for this young politician.

While Boris tore through his Cabinet, storm Dennis battered much of the United Kingdom, South Wales, among others, were the worst affected areas suffering widespread flooding.

With an estimated insurance bill of £200m for Storm Ciara, one can times this by a rather hefty multiple for that of storm Dennis. On the subject of domestic infrastructure spending, strong rhetoric reverberated around the UK market as commitment to the much embattled HS2 project came to the fore. Small-Mid cap infrastructure providers bounced last week in the wake of the news.

As I consider the effects of the Corona Virus I note with interest the statistic from The World Health Organisation (WHO), an authority for disease. WHO estimate the global prevalence of Influenza results in 3-5 million cases a year, with 290,000 – 650,000 respiratory deaths. Why then, when framing our thoughts around this statistic, have we seen widespread global panic caused by a mutation of the Corona strain? The concern is simple and two fold, the virus kills without age discrimination and travels quickly. One must not underestimate the humanitarian impact of this virus, but also recognise that the economic effects could be severe and run deep.

 

As a global economic powerhouse, Chinese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a big driver for markets contributing almost 30% of global growth.

 

It is estimated that Chinese growth could fall to around 4% from last year’s 6% in the wake of the virus. The impact could be greater than the immediate cause, with a permanent loss of capacity in the Chinese economy and subsequently weaker global activity. Although an unknown, we must remain vigilant of the spill over effects of this pandemic.

As a Liverpool fan, I am mildly amused to read the announcement that Man City will have a two year ban from Champions League football and a possible point’s deduction from the premiership. Although of course it looks like we won’t need the help this year.

 

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